Russian participation in the nuclear talks has demonstrated that despite the depth of the Ukrainian crisis and all the existing conflicts between Russia and the West, there are no reasons to consider Russia a purely destructive force that is bent on harming the West.
The experience gained in Vienna may be useful in future talks. In order to make the further negotiations effective, both Obama and Rouhani need to find a way to achieve a consensus of support for their actions within their own political establishments.
An agreement between Iran and the P5+1 will not deal a significant blow to Moscow’s relationship with Tehran. While the nuclear issue remains the most important aspect of Western relations with Tehran, the Russian-Iranian agenda is much broader.
On November 11, Russia and Iran signed a package of documents paving the way for Moscow to construct up to eight nuclear power units. With this agreement, Russia and Iran have established a solid economic foundation for political dialogue.
A number of complex questions remain unresolved as negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program enter their final stage. The main question is whether the cooperation between Russia and the West would continue at the previous levels in the midst of the crisis in Ukraine.
Russia’s unconfirmed intention to buy Iranian oil throws a monkey wrench in the sensitive mechanism of negotiating a gradual easing of the regime of economic sanctions against Tehran.
The dramatic developments in Geneva last week demonstrate that the Iranian nuclear issue can be resolved. The details of the future accord are very important, and they may become sticking points for international diplomacy.
The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 equates with an unquestionable strengthening of the Taliban movement or even with its actual coming to power. The external actors will have to adjust to the new situation and the future Afghan coalition leadership which will include the Taliban.
